News

Wednesday 1st September 2010

Prospects for growth in a youthful and modernized Turkey

2010 has been a great year for Turkey, with figures showing it has had stronger growth than any EU country.

Several factors have come together to produce these results and what will interest property investors in particular is that healthy growth is set to be sustained over the medium term, at least.

The OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) foresees GDP growth of 6.7% p.a. for Turkey during 2011-2017 which is the highest forecast of all the OECD countries.

Moodys upgraded Turkey's bond rating to BA2 from BA3 and Fitch Ratings also upgraded its longer-term currency ratings. All clear indicators of the strength of Turkey’s banking sector.

"If the real interest rates continue to be around 4 to 5 percent, then Turkey has a huge growth potential and it can be the next Brazil," says Türker Hamzaoglu, a Merrill Lynch economist. "Brazil saw huge growth after the 2001 crisis. Maybe Turkey does not have valuable underground resources, but instead of this, it has low real interest rates."

After uninterrupted growth at an average of around 7% annually for six years, Turkey was hit hard by the global economic crisis and GDP growth fell by 6.5% in 2009.

Morgan Stanley economist Tevfik Aksoy stated that much of this was because of Turkey’s reliance on the household appliances and car industries, both of which were amongst the worst affected sectors. In short, that they were putting all of their eggs into one basket rather than diversifying across sectors.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan often came under fire for his optimism during the crisis, especially as job losses started to mount. Yet under Erdogan's Islamist-based Justice and Development (AK) Party, which has been in government since 2002, much economic reform has been achieved and Turkey has began to emerge strongly from the crisis.

Istanbul has low prices per square meter, a current low take up of mortgages and low interest rates, which are obvious positives. In addition, the country has a young working population, strong prospects for growth with an increasingly important central role in the near east. These factors when combined with Turkey’s competent and stable government make it a recommendable place in which to invest.

Property investors are benefiting from Turkey's strong economic growth by investing in the most up and coming area within Istanbul, called Beylikduzu. Review one of our Istanbul Property Investments and download the Investor Report for further information.